Back to all Blog 14 November 2024

Prime London sales market ‘bursts into life’ with best October since 2013

LonRes reports 'substantial turnaround' as transactions jump 55% year-on-year, while a significant rise in under offer numbers bodes well for Q4.

Agencies across Prime London have been reporting a flurry of standout deals recently, and new data from LonRes confirms last month was indeed a bumper one. Measured by transaction levels, it was the strongest October since 2013, and the second biggest in 20 years. Sales were up by 55.8% on the same month in 2023, and 62.8% higher than the 2017-2019 average for the time of year. This marked a “substantial turnaround” compared to the relatively subdued performance over the previous nine months of 2024. Fears around potential tax hikes in the Budget could have helped some buyers move out of the “wait-and-see” phase, explained the firm, but the heightened number of sales being agreed “suggests that buyer confidence may be returning in a sustainable fashion”. October’s under offer numbers were up by 21.6% on an annual basis – the highest figure for the month since 2015.

On the supply side, new instructions were 18.7% higher than last year – and 12.1% up on the pre-pandemic October average. This has boosted the stock of available homes for sale, which was 10.6% higher at the end of the month than a year earlier (and 30.5% above the level seen five years earlier). The top-end of the market had been slowing noticeably throughout 2024, but even this sector saw a burst. Sales above the £5mn mark were up 34.5% on last year and 62.5% above the 2017-2019 October average. New instructions above this threshold increased by 31.2% compared to last October, with available stock on the market rising by 21.7% over the past 12 months. In the event, the Budget didn’t directly increase either SDLT or CGT for individuals buying their main homes, so LonRes thinks this new momentum “could be maintained through the closing months of the year”. Prices across Prime London were still down on an annual basis last month, but the pace of falls slowed to 0.9%, marking the best performance since last August. Values remain a touch below (0.6%) pre-pandemic levels. Price reductions, another key indicator, fell in October by 3.6% compared to last year, “potentially indicating a small shift in the balance of power from buyers back to vendors”.

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