Back to all Blog 17 October 2024

‘Promising signs’ for Prime London’s property market as under offers jump by 22%

Buyers have remained active despite ongoing challenges and a strong pipeline of sales is building, reports LonRes.

After a quiet end to the summer, the Prime London property market has made a “promising” start to autumn, with more sales being agreed and plenty of options around for househunters.

The latest data from LonRes shows a 22.1% increase in the number of properties going under offer in September, compared to the same month last year. Looking at Q3 as a whole, the number of properties going under offer was 17.5% higher than last year and 21.4% above the pre-pandemic average Q3 average. This is a timelier indicator of demand than transactions, says the firm, noting how “a strong pipeline of sales is now building up”. Actual transactions for last month were lower than September of last year (by 5.7%), but higher than the long-term average for the month (by 5%). Despite ongoing challenges including the weak economy and worries around policy and tax changes, buyers have remained active: the year-to-date sales total for the first nine months of 2024 is currently just 2.1% below last year. Average achieved prices are down by 1.8% on an annual basis, and just 0.2% above 2017-2019 levels. The average rate achieved across prime postcodes is currently hovering around £1,300 psf. September is traditionally a big month for new listings, and this year was particularly strong. LonRes recorded a 15.7% increase in new instructions compared with a year earlier, and 23.7% more than the 2017-2019 September average. As a result, supply levels are even higher than usual for this time of year: there were 12.7% more homes for sale at the end of September than a year earlier, and 32.2% more than five years earlier. “Buyers should have a lot of choice in the current market,” said the research team. This is usually also a time for pruning prices, and there’s been a lot of this happening over recent weeks: the number of reductions is at its highest level (for the time of year) for more than three years Looking specifically at the top-end of the market, above £5mn, high supply and weaker demand have led to a slowdown of late. New instructions rose by 36.1% compared to last September and at the end of the month there were 27.8% more properties for sale than a year earlier. Transactions in September were 2.9% lower than a year earlier, while under-offers were 38.5% lower over the same period. Things look more positive on a longer-term basis, however. Relative to the 2017-2019 Q3 average, new £5mn-plus instructions were up 86.5%, under-offers were up 51%, sales were up 44.1%, and price reductions were up 173.8%. There were 67.7% more £5mn-plus homes on the market at the end of September compared to five years earlier. “This wider context shows that the St Johns Wood house market of £5mn-plus  has expanded notably compared to pre-2020,” added the report. “While demand has fallen compared to 2021 through 2023, it is more the case that it was exceptionally high and returned towards normal this year rather than falling away significantly.”

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