'Strong demand and tight supply' will 'overshadow higher interest rates' to push international home values up in the coming year, says Reuters after polling over 100 property market experts.Top pundits still expect global property prices to increase over the next two years, but the pace of growth is likely to be slower than envisaged three months ago. This according to a poll by Reuters.
Many of the experts on the panel of over 100 housing market watchers had prophesied double-digit price declines from pandemic-era peaks. But it turns out that home prices in “most markets will end the year on a positive note.”Looking ahead, “strong demand and tight supply” will “overshadow higher interest rates,” suggest pollsters, pushing residential real estate values yet higher until at least 2025. Although “higher mortgage rates and the lack of supply of affordable homes will restrict prices from rising too much.” Average property values in the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany and Dubai are forecast to go up between 1.3% to 5% in 2025, while India is on track to see annual price growth top 7%.
Separate data released last week suggests the world’s top super-prime markets have been holding up relatively well in 2023. 362 sales were recorded above $10mn across the 12 markets covered by the index in Q3, compared to 371 in the same period last year (-2.4%).
All things considered, that’s a pretty resilient performance, given that resi sales in many of the world’s mainstream markets have fallen by between -20% and -30% year-on-year – largely as a result of surging finance costs.
Looking at the annualised data above $10mn, it’s a similar picture, with sales in the 12 months to September down by -4.1% compared to the full-year 2022 results. The total value of super-prime sales – US$31.7bn over the most recent 12-month period – has fallen from the 2021 post-pandemic high of US$40.7bn, but is still well ahead of the pre-pandemic total of US$18.6bn in 2019. Top-end transaction levels actually rose in five of the hubs during Q3: Hong Kong, Dubai, Geneva, Miami and Sydney all saw more sales compared to Q3 2022. Dubai again led the way in terms of quarterly sales, a position it has held since Q4 2022, with a total of 89. London came in second position (51), with Hong Kong sitting in third (39).
